Stefanik Trails by Only 14 Points
By Thomas Montana
A recent poll from the Research Institute at Siena University saw Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul’s lead over presumptive Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik in a potential gubernatorial race being cut.
Hochul, who had a 47-24% lead over Stefanik in June, now holds just a 14-point lead in a recent poll, 45-31%. Sixty-eight percent of Democrats say they would vote for Hochul, and 75% of Republicans say they would vote for Stefanik. Independents lean slightly towards Stefanik.
Despite gaining on Hochul, Stefanik is still not that well-known to the voters. Forty-one percent of voters, 42% of Democrats and 36% of Republicans say they don’t know or don’t have an opinion about Stefanik.
Nearly half of voters say they are at least somewhat familiar with Stefanik, but only 29% say she has the right experience to be governor, and by 49-37%, they say if she was elected governor, it would be bad for New York.
“Stefanik clearly has room to grow with voters – either positively or negatively,” said Siena pollster Steve Greenberg. “While 49% of voters say they are very or somewhat familiar with her, 46% are not very or not at all familiar with Stefanik, Republicans think she has the right experience to be governor, Democrats don’t, and independents are closely divided.”
New York City votes remain behind Hochul, with 55% saying they would vote for the incumbent Governor. Stefanik slightly leads in the suburbs, with 41% to Hochul’s 39%, despite Hochul leading by eleven points in June. Upstate voters lean towards Hochul by one point despite having a 12-point lead last month.
With the recent passing of the Big Beautiful Bill, voters are opposed to the state spending $3 billion to continue providing health care to immigrants illegally in New York. 51% of voters oppose the idea while 34% are in favor. Democrats are more divided than Republicans on the matter, with the Democrats at 47-36% in favor, while Republicans are 20-69% in opposition. Independents share a similar opinion to Republicans, with 22-64% in opposition to cutting funding.
Only a plurality of Democrats support the state continuing to provide them with healthcare,” Greenberg said. “Interestingly, voters under 35 support continuing to provide healthcare, but a strong majority of voters 55 and older oppose it.”
After the passage of the Big Beautiful Bill, President Trump’s favorability ratings have stayed relatively the same and has seen an increase in his job approval ratings over the last month. Trump has a 37-56% favorability rating, compared to 37-60% in June. As for his job approval rating, it stands at 41-58%; rising from his 39-59% rating the previous month. For Democrats, 19-81% approve of Trump, compared to 81-18% for Republicans and 48-50% for Independents.
The same could be said for Hochul, with her favorability rating being 42-44%; 42-47% in June. Hochul’s favorability rating for Democrats is 56-30% and 21-68% for Republicans. Independents have a 34-52% favorability rating for Hochul. Hochul’s job approval rating is 53-42%, up from her 50-45% rating in June. Specifically, Democrats are 70-26% for her job approval ratings, Republicans are 24-72% and Independents are 45-49%.
“More than two-thirds of Republicans think Trump is succeeding in improving America’s standing in the world, protecting the rights of all Americans, and ensuring Americans feel safer. But at least three-quarters of Democrats and about half of independents say he is not succeeding,” Greenberg said. “Overwhelming majorities of Democrats and independents say Trump is not succeeding in making necessities more affordable and ending wars around the world. And about one-quarter of Republicans also say he’s not succeeding on these issues.”