Previously Published in The Messenger
Former President Donald Trump’s (R-FL) rally at the Nassau Coliseum last week couldn’t have been more of a godsend to the ardent supporters of his base, just as much as it was a reality shock to the Democratic machine that runs this state.
For context, Trump had campaigned in New York State only once before during this cycle: his May rally in the Bronx. That event was quickly panned by the left and talking heads alike, all unified in their message that New York is not in play and that Trump was simply showboating in what was considered a political bluff at best and a waste of time and campaign resources at worst.
What’s interesting is that the Democratic figureheads and the pathologically honest pundits of the mainstream media didn’t pick up on the fact that Trump was speaking to a crowd of people long forgotten by Albany and New York City Hall, many of whom did not fit the media’ preset narrative of a crowd of old, white, angry Trump supporters.
Trump’s energy in New York rebounded after his June convictions, which The Messenger personally witnessed as Fifth Avenue turned red outside Trump Tower as the former president delivered remarks at a press conference. We learned that not only were most people there not of the coalition the media so desperately hopes is the sole bloc of Trump voters in this country, but that people previously victimized by the criminal justice system and “the man” only identified with Trump more. We also learned that cab drivers, the vast majority of whom are first-generation Americans with a language barrier, planned to vote for Trump by a margin of nearly 90%-10%.
Many were disappointed by Joe Biden’s (D-DE) July withdrawal from the race, a political boomerang for which most were unprepared, as this likely meant Trump’s prospects of putting New York in play were as sprightly as Biden’s ascent up the stairs of Air Force One.
But Trump’s return to the Empire State, and his inaugural rally on Long Island, renewed the rallying cry for the Big Apple’s long forgotten and overlooked population, as at least 60,000 attendees descended on Uniondale’s Nassau Coliseum for a glimpse of the former president. More were likely left outside than those who got in, as the venue’s capacity tops out at around 19,000.
Trump’s energy in New York shows no signs of waning, as a Siena College poll released just before his Wednesday night rally shows Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA) not faring much better than Biden did: a mere lead of just twelve points.
Margins in politics are hugely relative and that relativism expands when the race is confined to the presidency, U.S. Senate, a single House district, a state legislative district, or any other political jurisdiction. For reference, Trump losing a swing state, say Michigan, by twelve points would mean a dire landslide for Harris, with a path of upwards of 400 electoral votes likely for the Vice President. On the other hand, a Trump loss of twelve points in New York, or a similar state, would likely mean he wins the election at least somewhat comfortably.
New York has backed Democrats in every election since 1988, going for margins exceeding twenty points in all, except for 1988 and 2004. John Kerry (D-MA) won by a whopping eighteen points in 2004, and George Bush (R-TX) didn’t even carry Suffolk County. Biden won here by twenty-three points in 2020.
If Trump were to push New York ten points to the right, as is evidenced by a mountain of polling data at this point, it would likely mean he’s built a broad enough coalition that translates to decent or even sizable victories in other states, enough to secure a second nonconsecutive term.
This isn’t a perfect science, but it’s one that must be examined and considered going into an election with this propensity. A ten-point shift among New York voters likely means that suburbanites, minorities, and Independents have broken for Trump significantly in much more politically swingy areas. Income brackets are another demographic in play for Trump nationwide, with voters of incomes of more than $100,000 annually having backed Biden by seven points four years prior. Voters making under $30,000 annually supported Biden by eleven points.
Could Trump, a Republican, flip New York? It’s more possible than it’s been at any other point this century, but we’ll still rate the race as “Likely Democratic,” in that Harris has a serious set of baked-in advantages that cannot be overlooked.
Is New York in play? Absolutely, and that’s why the entire machine built around a blue New York is panicking.
The reality is that Trump, or any Republican for that matter, doesn’t have to win New York to send shockwaves and contribute to any swamp-draining activities going on in Washington. If he were to win New York outright, the election, in the president’s own words, would be “over.” All the swing states would go to him, and he’d easily eclipse 400 electoral votes facilitated by wins in other blue or blue-ish states.
But that’s not what everyone is counting on. A ten-point swing to the right in New York would mean a massive liability for Democrats’ popular vote margins, a statistic they desperately work to inflate to downplay the overall purpose of the Electoral College and why their party cannot win among the rank-and-file electorate. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) defeated Trump in New York by twenty-three points and took almost two million more votes than him statewide. If Trump were to balance those scales, it begins to eat away at a reliably urban national popular vote lead.
The other problem a red-trending New York poses for the machine: Albany politics. An overall redder New York means Democrats may or may not have a much more difficult time in retaining the Senate, a legislative body of which they assumed control only in 2018, after a decades-long drought with small interruptions. A statewide environment that is friendly to more conservative policies and messaging pays dividends to the New York Republican Party and to voters across the state who seek more checks and balances that have been absent in six years of a Democratic trifecta in Albany.
The Assembly, by the same logic, would also fall into jeopardy, albeit by a significantly less severe form. Democrats have had a lock on the Assembly since the 1960s, and there’s virtually no hope Republicans can flip the chamber back unless they win New York City up and down. But cracking the supermajority is a different story, and one that is much more feasible, even without a ten-point swing to the right.
Even Democratic performances in local races stand to suffer from a statewide shift to the right. If highly active voters feel compelled enough to buck a party whom they feel no longer represents them, it might hurt down ballot Democrats as well. This is much less of an exact science, as local elected officials can usually wade through partisan hot-button issues and campaign on local issues and governance, but it’s still worth mentioning in the grand political scheme. And if we were in the Democrats’ camp, we’d probably be issuing that exact soft warning to them.
Finally, it means the overall Democratic machine will perennially be put on notice about the state of play in New York. Even if it means New York becomes the white whale to Republicans that Texas is to Democrats, it means more money, more resources, more staffing, and more ground game in a state they have not seriously contested in decades. Maybe is doesn’t mean a red New York outright, but maybe it does mean more wins in the Midwest, less resources going to vulnerable Republican incumbents and more to Democrats who shouldn’t have a problem winning their races, and frantic autopsies on determining how their impenetrable fortress allowed the red tide to get in.
Why else do you think Albany Democrats voted to move local off-year elections to even-calendar years? Down ballot presidential energy in a state like New York could insulate state and local Democrats from more hyper-local Republican tendencies, especially here in Suffolk County. Of that law, we wrote that it was nothing more than partisan damage control. Trump’s demonstrated strengths in New York vindicate that position.
We’re all for a more competitive New York, even if it just means a Republican-controlled Senate and some more attention during presidential years. We think it’s more probable than not that New York will become a fully-fledged battleground by the end of the decade. For 2024, however, it appears New York is in play, if not to put Democrats on serious notice for the next month, rather, the next generation.