Previously Published in The Messenger
By Matt Meduri
With Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R-Atlantic Beach) having formally announced his 2026 gubernatorial campaign, after much speculation, Republicans now face a hurdle in an area that was somewhat expected to be exclusive to the Democratic side: a costly and possibly contentious primary.
As of now, the only other high-profile Republican in the race is Congresswoman Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville).
Where is New York on the Political Spectrum?
We’ve covered the evolving electoral landscape in New York for the last couple years at length, and all signs since Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley) came within just six points of becoming governor in 2022 point to a similar theme: New York could very well be an up-and-coming battleground state on the national level.
Since the 2016 presidential election, New York City has shifted about thirty points to the right. Last year, Donald Trump (R-FL) managed to swing NYC so much to the right, in fact, that the Bronx registered as one of the sharpest rightward swings of any county in the nation. New York State itself registered for the largest rightward shift of any state – about 10.5% more Republican than it was in 2020.
And it wasn’t just a Democratic enthusiasm gap that saw drastically reduced margins for Kamala Harris (D-CA), as it was in California, for instance. While Harris lost some 625,000 votes compared to Joe Biden (D-DE) in New York, Trump picked up almost 330,000 votes compared to his 2020 finish. That result saw Trump come closer to winning New York than Harris did to winning Florida, Texas, or Iowa – shockingly.
Since Zeldin’s near-upset in 2022, it has been more or less understood that if the GOP wants to put New York into perennial play, it will take a few passes of the wrecking ball to see more of the Blue Wall deteriorate. But it won’t be as easy as it was in Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin – states with much higher floors for the GOP than New York has had in forty years.
New York is home to 2.9 million registered Republicans, 6.4 million registered Democrats, and 3.3 million registered Blanks. Even if every single registered Republican and Blank backed a GOP candidate for governor, he/she would still lose if every registered Democrat showed up to the polls.
That means the GOP will require crossover support, a considerable number of Blanks, and, ideally, a depressed turnout environment for the Democrats, something they had in 2024, but might not have in 2026, a midterm year shaping up to be at the very least decent for the Party of Jackson.
So, how does this all fit into the Blakeman-Stefanik Problem, as we’re calling it?
The Liability of Primaries
Primaries are certainly an effective way of gauging the marketplace of ideas and letting the voters of each party select their preferred nominee. We’re in no way downplaying the importance of that.
But in terms of electoral liability, a primary can – and has – called winners and losers before the general election campaign even gets going. A primary can not only drain resources that might be more valuable for the general, but it can also lead the candidates sparring with each other to receive the voters’ favor to the point that ammunition is essentially gift-wrapped for the general election opponent. If New York was a red state, this liability wouldn’t be as problematic, but in a blue state that the GOP has a shot of flipping, every move could count.
And it’s not just a hunch. Stefanik has already labelled Blakeman as an “early Christmas early present to Hochul.
Let the partisan infighting begin, especially at time when Republicans on Capitol Hill are already starting to break with Trump on certain grounds. That type of intraparty bickering can and has been a significant drag on what would otherwise be smooth momentum.
It’s also a money thing. Candidates who can avoid a primary can get a head start on the general election, and it only benefits one party more when the other has a primary on their hands. Campaign cash also only goes so far in New York, as it’s the priciest media market in the country. Whoever wins the GOP nomination will need every penny going into the general election, as Hochul will invariably have a deeper war chest by the sheer nature of the state.
But Democrats have the primary problem on their end as well. Hochul is currently being challenged by her own hand-picked Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado (D-Rhinebeck). Delgado, 48, is trailing Hochul by large margins in the polls, but stands to galvanize a younger, more progressive sect of the vote. It’s also easier for us to see a nastier primary on the left than on the right this year, given that Delgado and Hochul have an ostensibly strained relationship and, for Hochul, having her number two gunning for her position isn’t the best look PR-wise.
Should Hochul only emerge from her primary with 60% of the vote or less, she could be in real danger of facing an enthusiasm gap. The gap between Harris and Biden last year could widen into a chasm between Hochul 2026 and Hochul 2022.
Avoiding a Nationalized Race
Not that long ago, statewide elections were much more siloed than they are now. Gubernatorial races are the only races of that nature to have retained that mantle, as they’re more geared towards candidate quality, local issues, and retail politics, rather than national hot-button issues – at least on paper.
However, it’s still common to see gubernatorial races become nationalized, often to the point of one party losing what is otherwise a winnable race. The Trump effect has been on display in several gubernatorial races since the 2018 midterms. A litmus test of Trump loyalty is already a foregone conclusion, however, as both Stefanik and Blakeman are staunch surrogates of the president.
At that juncture, Blanks, not keen on the president, will look for the candidate delivering the most New York-centric message.
That’s why we call this the Blakeman-Stefanik Problem. We mean no criticism to either candidate, but the ideal scenario would be one in which Stefanik, the front-runner by a long shot in the GOP primary polls, can essentially campaign for the general all year while Hochul must fight to keep her wing of the party together, especially if city progressives fault her for hindering Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s (D-Astoria) socialist agenda.
Blakeman’s entry into the race, while not entirely unexpected, is something of a curveball in that President Trump cleared the path for Stefanik earlier this year by having Congressman Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) stand down and seek re-election to his Westchester-based House seat – a swingy seat that backed Harris for president and is tantamount to any chances Republicans have at retaining the House next year.
Trump, at present, has remained reticent on this development, claiming he views both candidates favorably. We find that to be an odd development in and of itself, as Trump had nominated Stefanik to serve as his Ambassador to the United Nations, a position to which she likely would have been soundly confirmed by the Senate, only for her hearing to be beleaguered as it became apparent bigger and better things were on the horizon for the North Country Republican.
We think this is an unforced error on Blakeman’s part. While polls show he has no realistic shot at winning this primary, he only stands to siphon much-needed funds from the candidate who is not only leading handily in the Republican Primary polls, but also as the clearest shot at becoming the first Republican governor of New York since George Pataki (R) was re-elected to a third and final term in 2002.