By Hank Russell
A poll recently released by the Siena College Research Institute (SCRI) found that New Yorkers are more positive about the economy that the rest of the nation. Further, since Donald Trump won the election, more Republicans than Democrats were feeling optimistic.
The New York State Index of Consumer Sentiment during the fourth quarter of 2024 was at 78.1, which is 2.1 points above the breakeven point of 76, in which there are an equal number of respondents who feel positively and feel negatively about the economy. It is also 4.1 points higher than the national index of 74.0. (National data was compiled by the University of Michigan.)
According t0 SCRI Director Don Levy, it was the first time since June 2021 that the state’s consumer sentiment index climbed over the breakeven point.
Republicans — buoyed by the 2024 election — felt better about the state’s economic conditions, with a ICS of 88.4 (higher than the state’s ICS), while Democrats were down on the economy with a 74.8 index.
“In November, the economy was voters’ top issue,” Levy said. “Trump’s victory has Republicans in New York more hopeful but Democrats more pessimistic.”
When looking at the way things are now, the Republicans’ index dropped precipitously to 59.1, while the Democrats’ CSI shot up to 83.0. On the future, Republicans were way more optimistic with an eye-popping 107.3, while the Dems felt underwhelmed at 69.6.
“Sentiment among Republicans is skyrocketing, up 25 points overall and nearly 40 points when only considering the future,” Levy said. “Democrats’ mood is down 14 points overall driven by a 25-point drop in future confidence. Although previous elections have seen consumers’ mood whiplash by party, today’s sentiment swings are twice as intense compared to either ’16 or ’20.”
When asked how concerned they were about the price of gas, 49% of New Yorkers expressed concern — down from 52% the previous quarter and the lowest level since March 2021. GOP respondents showed more concern (69%, up from 68%), but 46% of Democrats were less concerned (down from 52%).
The price of food, however, was a bigger issue: 81% of New Yorkers were worried, up from 78% in Q3 2024. Ninety-one of Republicans (up from 84%) and 81% of Democrats (up from 78% were equally concerned.
“In November, the economy was voters’ top issue,” Levy said. “Trump’s victory has Republicans in New York more hopeful but Democrats more pessimistic. … With the incoming president promising tariffs as well as other changes that will affect the economy, we’ll see how consumer sentiment moves early in 2025.”