Previously Published in The Messenger
By Matt Meduri
All eyes are on the 2026 gubernatorial race in New York as Republicans are hoping to defy decades of drought to win the seat for the first time in over twenty years.
New York, hardly a competitive state at virtually every level, has received national attention over the last couple of election cycles. Then-Congressman Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley) came about six points away from flipping the state red in 2022 gubernatorial race, Republicans’ path to the House majority ran straight through New York, and the state took the sharpest rightward swing in last year’s presidential election.
Now, both parties expect a fully engaged race in the Empire State next year as Republicans seek to challenge the entrenched Democratic status quo in a midterm year expected to be at least somewhat unfavorable to the presidential party, while Democrats seek to defend their platform in a state that leads the nation in net population loss.
While the race is still materializing and candidates are still flirting with tossing their hats into the ring, Republicans are already sold on one name: Congresswoman Elise Stefanik (R, NY-21).
The Plattsburgh Republican served as House Republican Conference Chair from 2021 to January of this year and was President Donald Trump’s (R-FL) nominee to serve as Ambassador to the United Nations.
On the Republican side, only one minor candidate has declared – Bethany Town Supervisor Carl Hyde, Jr. (R) – and one has filed paperwork – David Tulley, an illegal cannabis shop owner. Congressman Mike Lawler (R, NY-17), who has spent this year publicly expressing interest in the race, bowed out of the Republican Primary at the endorsement and encouragement of President Trump.
No Republican can win statewide in New York without its largest baskets of votes turning out strongly. Suffolk County Republican Committee Chairman Jesse Garcia (R-Ridge) has regularly described Suffolk County as the “tip of the spear” in turning New York red – or at least into a perennially competitive battleground.
With that, the GOP is taking no chances, as they say New York cannot stand to survive another four years of Governor Kathy Hochul (D) – and Suffolk’s role as the “tip of the spear” could not be understated.
Hochul has had consistently mid-to-slightly-underwater approval ratings, as she continues to be pressed for answers to the state’s migrant crisis that has exacerbated resources and services, particularly in New York City, while the state’s budget hole continues to balloon.
Hochul has received vocal criticism from members of her own party, some of whom are rallying around the flag to ensure New York stays blue next year. However, her immediate subordinate, Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado (D), is running to primary his own boss. Congresswoman Stefanik recently addressed party leaders, elected officials, and community members at a private event in Smithtown last week. She was joined by Chairman Garcia and New York State Senate Minority Leader Rob Ortt (R-North Tonawanda).
Stefanik branded Hochul as the “worst governor in America”, a title she has regularly ascribed to the Governor. In June, Stefanik pressed Hochul at a hearing of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee about sanctuary city and state policies.
“I may be from Upstate New York, but we are all New Yorkers, and we know that we need to save New York and fire Kathy Hochul once and for all,” Stefanik told attendees last week in Smithtown. “Look at what’s happened under Kathy Hochul’s watch; we lead the nation in all the wrong ways. We are losing population more than any other state. There is no end in sight for the amount of taxes, policies, and regulations. The war on energy has led to skyrocketing utility bills and the energy crisis that are punishing hard-working New York families. New York’s Democratic Party has embraced the ‘defund the police’ nonsense that has led to a crime crisis in our state and a war on law enforcement.”
As a North Country resident, Stefanik quipped that people aren’t leaving “because of the weather”, but “because of the policies.”
“New Yorkers know that it is we the people who are going to save this great state,” said Stefanik.”
Stefanik also praised former Congressman and current EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley), who “set the groundwork” for a Republican win in New York by coming just single-digits away from flipping the state red in 2022.
“Long Island turned out big in 2022, and we need to do that even more in 2026,” said Stefanik. She also expressed concern that Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani (D-Astoria) will win the New York City Mayoral race in November, stating that New York “needs a governor who can put a check” on the city.
“Suffolk County will lead the way in firing Kathy Hochul in 2026,” Stefanik said in closing.
Senate Minority Leader Ortt called Stefanik a “champion” for New York values.
“She is a fierce defender for all the values that you care about here in Suffolk County and across New York State,” said Ortt. He also praised Chairman Garcia’s transformation of the Suffolk County Republican brand that will serve as a launchpad for the election.
“This is the first time since 1996 that Republicans in Suffolk County have held the County Executive’s office and a supermajority in the Suffolk County Legislature,” said Garcia. The current delegation is twelve Republicans – with two Conservatives caucusing with the GOP – and six Democrats. Garcia posits that three seats are being hotly contested by the GOP this year, bringing a potential 15R-3D horseshoe.
“This is why we’re going to elect a Republican for governor in 2026,” said Ortt. Congressman Andrew Garbarino (R-Bayport), recently named Chair of the powerful House Homeland Security Committee, spoke in favor of Stefanik, the dean of the House Republican delegation from New York.
“It scares me, the dangerous things that Zohran Mamdani is saying, and what Governor Kathy Hochul is saying,” said Garbarino. “We have thousands of known and suspected terrorists all across the country and the Democrats are fighting us tooth and nail. I’m going to get the country and Suffolk County whatever they need to keep us safe.”
Garbarino closed by calling Stefanik a “longtime champion for New York and a longtime champion for the protection of our great country.”
“She has been crucial to us in this state and she has been crucial to us in this country,” said Garbarino.
While the race for governor is not officially organized, Stefanik has all but announced her candidacy. Nevertheless, she’s hitting the ground early and intends to be a formidable candidate to turn New York into a marquee race next year.