Respondents Sour on Hochul, Direction of the State
A poll that just came out from the Siena College Research Institute showed that 55% of likely voters in New York State support Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris, whereas 42% support Republican nominee Donald Trump. With third-party candidates in the race, Harris leads Trump 52%-40% with 3% favoring the minor party candidates.
When asked about which candidate do they trust more on issues, Harris is trusted more on abortion by a 60%-34% margin, democracy (56%-40%) and the economy (52%-45%). When it comes to immigration, Harris and Trump are in a statistical tie, with Harris at 48% and Trump at 47%.
According to pollster Steven Greenberg, Democrats trust Harris on all four issues by 76% to 89% and Republican voters trust Trump on the same issues by the same percentage range. Among independents, they trust Harris more on abortion by a 50%-42% margin, but trust Trump on democracy, the economy and immigration by a margin of 15 to 34 points.
“New York remains solidly ‘blue’ but perhaps not as deep blue as it has been in the last several presidential cycles. In the six presidential elections this century, Democrats have carried New York by at least 18 points, and at least 22 points in five of the six. President Biden won here by 23 points in 2020,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said.
In other election polling news, incumbent Democrat U.S. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand leads GOP challenger Michael Sapraicone by 23 points. However, independents switched their support over the past month, from 48%-35% support for Gillibrand in August to 45%-36% support for Sapraicone, Greenberg said, but it still won’t affect the race. “Gillibrand – seeking a third full term and fourth statewide victory – continues to remain in a strong position for reelection,” he said.
Kathy Hochul has hit a record low in her approval rating at 34% while her unfavorable rating hit an all-time high of 54%. This is a total opposite of October 2021, when her approval rating was above 40% and her unfavorable rating was below 30%. According to Greenberg, Hochul’s favorability rating fell by nine points and her job approval rating dropped by a net 14 points.
“While Hochul’s favorability rating has never been outstanding – she’s never been viewed favorably by 50% of voters in a state where 49% of the voters are Democrats – it has now hit an all-time low,” Greenberg said. “Her job approval rating, 39-56%, is also a record low.”
“It is also worth noting that Hochul’s favorability rating, 20 points under water, is worse than Trump’s, 18 points under water,” Greenberg added. “To repeat, Kathy Hochul has a lower net favorability rating in New York than Donald Trump.”
Just as New York voters have soured on Hochul, so, too, they have soured on the direction of the state. Only 32% of voters think New York is on the right track, compared to a majority of 55% who say the state is headed in the wrong direction. Last month, it was 39-51%, a net movement of eleven points in the direction of the state being on the wrong track. This is the most pessimistic New Yorkers have been about the direction of the state in at least a decade. It was close to this level, 34-55%, in January of this year. New Yorkers also remain pessimistic about the direction of the country, 31-59%, little changed from 30-61% last month.
Finally, a majority of those polled support the proposed Equal Rights Amendment. Democrats overwhelming support the proposal, 89%-6%, while Republicans disapprove, 48%-30%; the margin among GOP voters narrowed since August, when they did not approve of the ERA by a 23-point margin. Independents continue to support the ERA, 49%-31%, but the margin decreased sharply from last month, when they approved 64%-23%.