By Hank Russell
The Siena College Research Institute (SCRI) recently released a poll on the New York State Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS). The results showed the registered Republicans and Democrats in New York State are more divided than ever when it comes to their economic outlook, with the Dems expressing a more positive attitude.
Among party lines, Democrats expressed greater consumer confidence this quarter than Republicans. Those who were registered with the Democratic Party had an overall ICS of 88.9, up from 88.6 the second quarter of 2024 and 85.2 the same quarter in 2023. Their overall ICS was higher than the state’s — which remained unchanged at 75.9 — and the nation’s at 63.1. Registered GOP voters’ overall ICS was 63.6; although it was up from the previous quarter (58.6) and the same quarter last year (51.9), it was lower than the state.
The Index of Current Economic Conditions (ICC) – which measures how consumers feel about the economy now — was 80.7 for Democrats. Although they were not as optimistic as the last quarter, when the score was 81.5, they were more confident than in Q3 2023 with an index of 79.2. Republicans’ current index was 55.7, which was higher than in Q2 2024 (52.7) and the same quarter in 2023 (51.6). Again, the state’s and nationwide ICCs were below the Democrats’ and above the GOP’s at 68.6 and 63.3, respectively.
Looking to the future, Democrats were more positive with its Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE) at 94.1, slightly higher than in Q2 2024 (93.2) and more than last year’s third-quarter index of 89.0. Meanwhile, Republicans’ ICE was 68.6, which is higher than last quarter’s index of 62.8 and last year’s ICE of 52.1. The state’s ICE was 80.5 and the nation’s was at 74.4.
Based on the results, Democrats were above the breakeven score of 76 — which expresses both positive and negative feelings equally — while Republicans were below it.
“Republicans in New York were up nearly five points and recorded the highest overall index since June 2021,” said SCRI Director Don Levy. “Democrats top the optimistic list when looking to the future.”
When it comes to the food and gas prices, Republicans are more concerned than the Democrats are, but not as concerned compared to the last three months. Forty-six percent of Democrats were worried about the price of gas — up from 44% last quarter — while, over the same time period, 68% of Republicans said gas prices were an issue, down from 76% the previous quarter.
Both Democrats and Republicans expressed more trepidation over food prices. Among Democrats, 71% were concerned, slightly up from 70% the previous quarter, while 84% of Republicans had the same feelings, compared to 81% in Q2 2024.
Registered GOP voters were more concerned about these prices that state residents, in which they were asked about which impacts their finances the most, 52% said the price of gas which impacts their finances the most (down from 54% last quarter) and 78% said it was the price of food (up from 75% in Q2 2024).
Despite majorities of Americans giving the overall economy failing grades, when it comes to their own lives, collectively, we’re holding our heads above water.