Gillen Has Double-Digit Advantage over D’Esposito
By Hank Russell
The latest Siena College Research Institute (SCRI) poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris widening her lead against Donald Trump among likely voters, 58% to 39%. Meanwhile, in one of the more competitive Congressional races on Long Island, Democrat Laura Gillen is leading Republican incumbent Anthony D’Esposito by double digits, 54%-42%.
Harris has grown her lead from 52% to 40% last month. Her 19-point margin is the largest lead she has taken so far, according to pollster Steven Greenberg. “Harris continues to have 88% support from Democrats and 87% of Republicans continue to support Trump,” he said. “Independent voters — who have a tendency to fluctuate on how closely they align with the two parties — are closely divided, with 47% for Trump and 46% for Harris, after strongly favoring Trump last month.”
When third-party candidates are added in the mix, Harris still maintains a double-digit lead, 54%-37%, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver and third-party candidate Cornel West each get 1% of the vote. When undecided voters were asked which candidate they would lean towards, 42% said Harris, 19% said Trump and 39% said they did not know or refused to answer.
Greenberg also noted the shift in independent voters this month. “Independent voters — who have a tendency to fluctuate on how closely they align with the two parties — are closely divided, with 47% for Trump and 46% for Harris, after strongly favoring Trump last month.”
On the issues, 52% trusted Harris on the economy, compared to 46% for Trump. On abortion, 64% said Harris would do a better job, while 31% said Trump would. Those polled said Harris could be trusted on immigration (50%-46%) and protecting our democracy (58%-38%).
“A modest majority of voters continue to have a favorable view of Harris,” Greenberg said. “And by a larger margin, voters continue to have an unfavorable view of Trump, who they have consistently viewed unfavorably for more than a decade.”
In the 4th Congressional District, in which D’Esposito and Gillen are running, Harris has a smaller lead, 51%-41% in a wider field of candidates. Stein, Oliver and West each captured 1% of the vote. Further, more than twice of the undecided voters would lean towards Harris than Trump, 35%-17%.
In the Congressional race, Gillen leads D’Esposito by 12 percentage points. In addition, she has a favorable rating of 47% and a 35% unfavorable rating. D’Esposito has a higher unfavorable rating of 46%, compared to a 41% favorable rating.
When asked on who would do better on economic issues such as the cost of living, 49% trusted Gillen and 41% trusted D’Esposito. Gillen was also trusted more on climate issues, including energy policy (53%-36%), abortion (56%-30%), protecting our democracy (52%-39%), working on the SALT (State and Local Tax) deduction (47%-39%) and resolving the crisis in the Middle East (43%-38%). D’Esposito, however, was more trusted on fighting crime (49%-43%) and securing the southern border (47%-42%).
“Voters favor Democrats for Congress over Republicans, 54-37%, up a little from 52-39% in September,” the SCRI stated. “Downstate suburbanites and independents had favored Republican candidates last month but now favor Democrats for Congress.”