By Kayleigh Anderson
In a recent poll of more than 1,195 likely New York State voters conducted by the Siena College Research Institute, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is leading Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump statewide, with 53% supporting Harris and 39% for Trump.
This is the first time the Siena College poll has included Harris in a race against Trump. In late June, Trump trailed President Joe Biden by a narrower margin, 47-39%.
Pollster Steve Greenberg notes this change as being a significant movement. He notes the six-point increase could be from previously undecided voters or those who said they weren’t going to vote, or were voting for a minor-party candidate.
In a six-way election horse race, Harris leads Trump 49-37%, with 7% for Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and a combined 4% among the other three minor party candidates — Green Party candidate Jill Stein (2%), Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver (1%) and third-party candidate Cornel West (1%).
The poll also shows that Harris has a 53% favorability rating, up from 42% in October 2023. Trump’s favorability rating is 39%, little changed from 37% in June, among registered voters. By a 74-23% margin, voters say this is the most important election of their lifetime.
“The gender gap has widened with Harris replacing Biden. Currently Harris leads with women by 34 points, 64-30%, up from Biden’s 51-33%, or 18-point lead,” Greenberg said. “The race moved far less with men, who favor Trump over Harris 49-43%, compared to the 46-42% lead men gave Trump in June. “Interestingly, it wasn’t young voters that moved the needle. Among voters under 35, Harris leads 49-34%, down a little from the 51-32% lead Biden had in June. Harris’ big pickup was among voters 35-54, who favor her 54-40%, after backing Trump 44-41% over Biden in June.”
When asked of the poll results, Greenberg said, “This is the first poll of likely voters we have done. It’s also the first time we’ve done the horse race between Vice President Harris and former President Trump. So, do I see a change in voters’ attitudes? Certainly, when it comes to the presidential election.”
— Additional reporting by Hank Russell
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