Previously Published in The Messenger
As New York State balances, not so carefully, on a precipice of disaster, the State’s top two leaders – and ostensible party standardbearers in years to come – are in a quiet, yet mounting rundown.
Governor Kathy Hochul (D-Hamburg) is running for a second full term. After barely surviving what would have been the greatest upset of the night in 2022, she’s struggled to get her approval ratings into decent positions. However, as the campaign continues to solidify and Republicans have nominated Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R-Atlantic Beach), Hochul’s numbers have stabilized. The Siena College finds that while her marks are not overwhelming, they’re the best they’ve been since she was elected almost four years ago.
Since then, Hochul has struggled to strike a balance between an increasingly progressive State Legislature and a middle and right who are continuously growing agitated under exorbitant living costs, backwards criminal justice reforms, and one boneheaded decision after another. Moreover, she has been in the unenviable position of filling the power vacuum left behind by Andrew Cuomo (D-Sutton Place), who resigned in disgrace when it became clear that the old guard of the Democratic Party were no friends of the new progressive front.
Hochul has failed to galvanize the respect of the full legislature as she becomes more and more of a pushover. To her credit, she fought hard to roll back some of the disastrous provisions of bail reform earlier in her term, but progressives deadlocked Albany and waited Hochul out as the government shutdown loomed into the spring of 2023.
On the other hand, New York is trending towards battleground status. It will likely take a few more swings of the wrecking ball to collapse this section of the blue wall, but the concept of spending money and knocking doors in a state considered a foregone conclusion is nonetheless foreboding to Democrats.
Enter New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani (D-Astoria), who dispatched Cuomo not once, but twice for the keys to Gracie Mansion. That shift represented the same populist credo chanted by right and left alike: down with the corporate insiders and establishment politicians, up with the outsiders who pledge to fight tooth and nail for the little guy.
Mamdani’s election wasn’t just a shift towards socialism; it was emblematic of the internal blue wall continuing to collapse.
But for Hochul, she’s now on borrowed time. While history portends that she’s favored to win reelection this year, the question is how effective she will be after November, and if a Democrat is elected president in 2028, Republicans might finally have their break to flip New York in 2030. For now, Hochul is in a rundown of monumental political proportions, and Mamdani is playing shortstop.
Hochul is effectively about to round third to head home – four more years. But while establishment Democrats are camping third, not to much avail, Mamdani is interfering for the party’s identity going forward. If Hochul runs back to second, she’s met with the ire of the growing middle and right in New York who were not keen to elect her in 2022 and who made New York shift right more than any other state in 2024.
Hochul will keep bouncing back and forth between the mainstream Independents and the progressives, each with their own wish lists and each with their own sects of political power. While the progressives arguably have the upper-hand in such a fundamentally blue state, second base might grow more inhospitable for the indecisive Democrat.
Hochul continues to try to appease all but disappoint all by trying to cater to everyone’s demands. It’s not all on her. You can never make everyone happy; that’s politics. But Hochul can’t seem to pick a lane, and while Hochul might be able to secure a second term, the rundown is for the future of the party.
Moreover, Hochul seems intent on tabling some of Mamdani’s more radical proposals, at least until after she’s re-elected in November. Time will tell if she’s genuinely pumping the brakes on runaway ideas, or if she’s just ensuring that New York City and the immediate bedroom communities won’t revolt against her this November, and against Democrats in the national midterm environment.
The GOP must be careful as well to not fall into the fearmongering trap. While Mamdani’s collectivist ideology is inherently incompatible with many aspects of American life and commerce, to most degrees, the GOP has been quick to assert he will destroy New York City.
But what happens if and when that doesn’t happen in time for elections? Hochul reins in Mamdani just long enough to not have caused too much damage, and the Republicans only appear to have verbal ammunition and no damage to advertise.
However, Hochul must take this calculation seriously, lest it backfire and progressives abandon her for her hand-picked Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado (D-Rhinebeck). Hochul seems in much less immediate danger of losing the primary to Delgado than she does the general election to Blakeman, but if two weeks is an eternity in politics, then forget what four months is.
Some fissures have already come up, with the Brooklyn Democratic Committee rescinding their endorsement of Hochul over her pick in running mate Adrienne Adams (D-Hollis), a radical progressive who championed some unconscionable legislation during her time on the New York City Council. The Brooklyn fiasco seems to have notes of personal beef to it, but it’s certainly not a welcome image for a party going into a year in which they should be on a glide path to victory.
Democratic energy at their convention was reportedly mum, as Democrats seem to think they have the textbook enthusiasm, but they know their issues are unpopular in the long-term.
Will Mamdani sabotage Hochul’s rounding of third base by defenestrating her just as progressives did to Cuomo when he was no longer useful to them? Or will he play ball and bide his time until November 6?