By Hank Russell
A recent internal poll now has U.S. Congresswoman Elise Stefanik (R-Plattsburgh) leading incumbent Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul by less than one percentage point.
According to internal polling data from GrayHouse that was obtained by Long Island Life & Politics, the initial poll had Hochul up 48%-43%, but when those surveyed learned more about their positions, Stefanik overtook Hochul, with a slight 46.4%-45.9% lead. Among independent voters, Stefanik’s lead grew from five to 12 points, showing a 51%-39% lead.
GrayHouse found that Hochul has become “vulnerable,” mostly because of her recent endorsement of New York State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani (D-Astoria) as New York City Mayor. Mamdani, a Democratic socialist, is currently leading former governor Andrew Cuomo and Guardian Angels founder and radio talk show host Curtis Sliwa. However, recent polls have shown Cuomo digging into Mamdani’s lead since Mayor Eric Adams dropped out of the race.
“Kathy Hochul’s coalition is historically fragile: soft support from her own voters, [a] significant growing appetite for change, and her endorsement of politically toxic Zohran Mamdani collapses support among Independents,” GrayHouse pollster Landon Wall said in a statement. “The data overwhelmingly points to unprecedented vulnerability for an incumbent New York Democrat Governor, and a race that Republicans can win.”
When asked whether they would re-elect Hochul, 34% said they would “definitely” or “probably re-elect her and 59% said it’s “time for someone new.” Along party lines, 4% of Republicans. 60% of Democrats and 28% of independents would “definitely” or “probably” vote for Hochul, while 95% of GOP voters, 27% of Democrats and 65% of independents said they would vote for someone else.
Although Hochul has a higher favorability rating, she is underwater. Thirty-five percent of respondents have a “very favorable” or “somewhat favorable” view of Stefanik, while 33% had an unfavorable view of her. Hochul, meanwhile, had a “very favorable” or a “somewhat favorable” view of 40%, but 57% held a “somewhat” or “very unfavorable” view of her.
Seventy-three percent of Republicans had a favorable view of Stefanik, compared to only 4% of Democrats and 37% of independents, based on GrayHouse data. Fifty-three percent of Democratic voters had an unfavorable view of the congresswoman, compared to 5% of Republican voters and 35% of independent voters.
For Hochul, 72% of Democrats had a favorable rating of the governor, as did 4% of REpublicans and 31% of independent voters, while 95% of Republicans, 21% of Democrats and 64% of independents had an unfavorable view of the governor.
Hochul was also underwater on her job approval rating, with 56% of respondents disapproving of how she is doing her job, while 39% approve, according to GrayHouse. Additionally, nearly two-thirds — 65% — said New York is heading in the wrong direction, compared to 20% who said otherwise.
“Kathy Hochul enters a hypothetical 2026 race as one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country. She trails on time-for-change by 25 points,” Wall said. “The dominant wing of her party pulls her left, while voters already view her as too liberal. Her endorsement of Mamdani ties her to a candidate who damages Democrats.”