Analysis: How Local Crime Trends Compare to the Nation’s

By Hank Russell

With the elections coming up, many elected officials are making crime and public safety the top issues on their campaign platforms. Past elections showed that crime was either the No. 1 issue or one of the top issues among voters. For many candidates, this worked as they picked up on voters’ anger over weak discovery laws, a revolving-door justice system, “woke” prosecutors and soft-on-crime judges.

Now, those running for office are touting the drop in crime rates — especially murders, rapes and assaults. This is now backed up by the latest crime statistics from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

The FBI recently released its Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Summary of Reported Crimes in the Nation, 2024, which announced that this year’s violent crime, murder, rape, robbery and aggravated assault rates fell from last year.

According to the report, violent crime fell by 4.5%. The FBI stated that violent crime consists of murder, rape, robbery and aggravated assault. The agency also reported that murder decreased by 14.9%, rape was 5.2% lower than in 2023, robbery declined by 8.9% and aggravated assault also fell by 3.0%. (All percentages are estimates.) 

In 2024, an estimated 1,221,345 violent crime incidents took place, based on data from the FBI. That indicates a rate of 359.1 violent crimes per 100,000 inhabitants — less than last year’s figure of 379.5 violent crimes per 100,000 inhabitants.

On Long Island, however, the difference in violent crimes from year to year is lower than the national average, percentagewise. According to data from the state, Nassau County saw increases in violent crime (1.6%) from 2,258 to 2,294, murder (15.4%) from 13 to 15 and rape (132%) from 69 to 160. But the county saw a 9% drop in robberies from 597 to 542, and a 1.7% decrease in aggravated assaults from 1,597 to 1,577.

Suffolk County saw decreases in all but one category. Violent crimes were down 7.7% from 1,552 to 1,432, murders dropped 42.9% from 28 to 16, robberies declined by 28% from 314 to 226 and there was a 1.8% decline in aggravated assaults from 1,074 to 1,055. The number of rapes stayed the same at 136.

The number of property crimes fell nationwide across the board, according to the FBI. Property crime was down 8.1%, burglaries declined 8.6%, larcenies fell by 5.5% and motor vehicle thefts were 18.6% lower than last year. (All percentages are estimates.)

Both counties saw across-the-board decreases in all property crimes and showed that the decreases, percentagewise, exceeded the nation’s. 

An estimated 5,986,400 property crime offenses were committed in 2024 natiowide, indicating an offense rate of 1,760.1 property crimes per 100,000 inhabitants, down from the 2023 estimated offense rate of 1,934.1 property crimes per 100,000 inhabitants, according to the FBI.

Property crimes fell 11.8% in Nassau County from 15,828 to 13,961, according to state data. Burglaries went from 1,241 to 1,026 (a 17.3% decline), larcenies fell 9.6% from 13,698 to 12,384 and motor vehicle thefts decreased from 889 to 551 — down 38%. 

In Suffolk County, the number of property crimes declined by 8.8% from 19,447 to 17,735. Burglaries were down from 816 to 706 — a decrease of 13.5% — and larcenies fell 7.6% from 17,097 to 15,791. Motor vehicle thefts saw a 19.3% drop, from 1,534 to 1,238.