Previously Published in The Messenger
By Matt Meduri
The only prize at the federal level for the 2026 midterm elections is control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Republicans clawed back a thin majority in 2022 and retained their majority in 2024 despite losing one (net) seat.
Their majority is further complicated by early resignations and retirements of key moderates in swing districts likely to define the next session of Congress. Republicans currently hold a tenuous 219-seat quorum.
The almost evenly-divided House couldn’t be more up for grabs, but one state has taken matters into their own hands to secure the majority.
Republicans in the Texas State House have proposed a mid-decade redraw of the state’s thirty-eight congressional districts. Texas has the second-largest batch of districts, and therefore electoral votes, in the country behind California.
Texas’ congressional map started the 2020s as a more defense-minded gerrymander, with legislative Republicans opting to preserve competitive Republican-held seats and shore up competitive Democratic ones.
However, the proposal that recently passed a special committee in the Texas House in a 12-6 party-line vote would slice up five Democratic districts into ones that would have backed President Donald Trump (R-FL) in November and pits two incumbents against each other.
Two South Texas districts, under the proposal, would become seats that would have gone for Trump by about ten points each. The Rio Grande Valley is already trending heavily Republican, but two moderate Democrats currently occupy these seats. A Houston-based seat would be redrawn into a safely Republican district, as would a Dallas-Fort Worth-based seat.
In the Austin area, two incumbent Democrats would be forced to run against each other in a primary, with the internal fight to convince one to concede already mounting.
With no competitive districts in the proposal, the map would go from the current 25R-13D delegation to a likely 30R-10D delegation.
In response, Governor Gavin Newsom (D-CA) and Governor Kathy Hochul (D-NY) have suggested that their own states, respectively, redraw their maps to counter the Texas gerrymander, should it become instated before November 2026. Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin (D-MN) has said that Democratic governors across the country are ready to “fight fire with fire.”
The move comes after New York already saw mid-decade redistricting ahead of the 2024 cycle. The map used for the 2022 midterms was implemented by a special master after the Legislature-drawn map was ruled a partisan gerrymander by the State Supreme Court. Albany Democrats again redrew the map after getting the remedial one overturned, only for the lines to barely change ahead of 2024. However, the move likely helped them retain NY-03 and flip NY-19.
“I will put saving democracy as my top priority at any cost because it is under siege, just like those who put on a uniform to fight in battles across the ages,” Hochul told reporters on Monday. “For centuries we’ve stood up and fought; blood has been shed. This is our moment in 2025 to stand up for all that we hold dear and not let it be destroyed by a bunch of renegades in a place called Texas.”
Hochul adds that while she “respects” the elected officials in Texas, “we’ve had our battles with them.”
The only way to redraw the lines mid-decade is to amend the State Constitution, which requires the consent of the majority of the State Legislature in two consecutive sessions of the Legislature, followed by a ballot measure approved by the voters. While the current aim is for 2028, well past the 2026 midterms, the even-year elections law in New York might further complicate the plight. Should the amendment clear the 2026 and 2027 sessions of the Legislature, the ballot measure would only be able to go out in 2028, not 2027. The earliest a new map could be in play is for the 2030 elections, the same year the next Census would be undertaken. The congressional lines are to be redrawn in 2031.
“It is not the timeline that I would’ve preferred, but it does shave off four years from what would otherwise be the process,” said Hochul. “But we’re going to also look at litigation strategies, we’re in close conversations about options there. We’re considering all options right now.”
New York has an independent redistricting commission in place, although it functions differently from those of other states. The commission reached a stalemate twice on proposed maps in 2021’s redistricting, allowing the State Legislature to overtake the process. The result was the gerrymander ruled unconstitutional, followed by a remedial map that many believe delivered the House majority to the Republicans in 2022.
“Democratic states have gone to independent redistrict commissions and they’re non-partisan. In politics, there’s no such thing as nonpartisan,” said Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie (D-Williamsbridge). “It’s difficult to ask New York, California, and other Democratic-leaning states to play non-partisan while the Republicans play very partisan.”
Hochul adds that when Republicans come to power in the State Legislature, “they can have at it.”
“But until then, we’re in charge and we’re sick and tired of being pushed around when other states don’t have the same aspirations that we always have had — and I hold those dear,” said Hochul.
Hochul was flanked by Democratic State Representatives from Texas, who fled the state to prevent a vote on the map from coming to the full Texas House floor. Denying the quorum for the State House to do business has not only drained time on the August 19 deadline for the special session, but resulted in civil arrest warrants for the absconding officials.
Texas House Speaker Dustin Burrows (R-TX) signed the civil arrest warrants that are likely to face enforcement issues across state lines. Governor Greg Abbott (R-TX) has endorsed the representatives’ arrests, saying their departure is an “abandonment or forfeiture of an elected state office.”
“He [Abbott] knows that we’re using a tool that was given to us by the founders of the Texas Constitution,” said Texas Representative Mihaela Plesa (D). “He knows what the rules are and he’s trying to manipulate the situation to make it play in his favor. It’s not going to work.”
Hochul also says that standing on principle is of a bygone political era.
“I cannot ignore that the playing field has changed dramatically, and shame on us if we ignore that fact and cling tight to the vestiges of the past. That era is over — Donald Trump eliminated that forever.”
Senator Dean Murray (R-East Patchogue) says that both Texas Republicans and New York Democrats are in the wrong and that “two wrongs don’t make a right.”
“Apparently, the Democrats in New York think that two wrongs are the way to go, over and over again,” Murray told The Messenger. “Who would this benefit? It certainly doesn’t benefit the voters. In fact, I think it hurts the voters. A lot of people don’t know who their representatives are. When they finally find out, they’re [Albany] going to turn around and change them?”
Murray says that redistricting “makes sense” on a decennial basis, not haphazard mid-decade map shuffles.
“It makes sense we shift the lines of the districts so there remains fair representation for everyone as the population changes. How would you do that mid-decade? What changes? You have no idea how many people moved here or there because we haven’t done the Census yet,” said Murray. “Democrats in Albany are so caught up in partisan politics that they forget what they’re supposed to be doing for the people.”
Murray adds that the last map redraw was only in 2023, a process wrought with legal challenges that was barely done in time for the 2024 elections.
“How are they going to do this in a separate shorter window? By the time they get done trying to pull this maneuver, it’ll be time for the actual redistricting anyway,” said Murray. “It’s extremely expensive to do this. Then you factor in all the court challenges. The Democrats are also turning their backs on the independent commission; they ignore what the voters asked for in 2014. When the voters said no to unrestricted absentee ballots, they changed the wording and rammed it down the voters’ throats.”
Of what Murray says to Governor Hochul, “grow up.”
“The governor is basically saying, ‘we’re going to do it to you too.’ It’s absurd. Grow up, do what you’re supposed to do, play by the rules, and listen to the people you represent. How hard is that?”