By CaraLynn Caulfield
Despite signs of a modest rebound in consumer confidence, New Yorkers continue to feel the strain of essential expenses, according to the latest Siena College Research Institute (SCRI) quarterly survey.
The state’s Index of Consumer Sentiment rose to 71.9 in the second quarter of 2025, a 2.8-point increase from the first quarter. That improvement lagged behind the national gain of 3.7 points. Still, both state and national sentiment remain well below the optimism-pessimism breakeven mark of 76.0. National sentiment now sits at just 60.7, nearly 15 points beneath the balanced threshold.
“After a whirlwind of on-again, off-again tariff news, confidence of New York’s consumers is gradually recovering following a sharp nine-point decline in Q1,” said Travis Brodbeck, SCRI’s Associate Director of Data Management. “But we’re still in a space where pessimism outweighs optimism—just by less.”
The current confidence index in New York increased nearly five points to 71.6, while expectations for the future rose modestly from 70.6 to 72.0. Nationally, the future index jumped by more than five and a half points. Brodbeck noted that typically, consumers are more optimistic about the future than the present. However, this quarter’s results suggest that New Yorkers’ outlook for the future is now only slightly more positive than their views of current conditions—an indication that longer-term confidence remains muted.
Partisan Divide Widens
Political affiliation continues to drive a sharp split in economic outlook. New York Republicans reported a significantly higher consumer sentiment index of 85.8, compared to 66.7 among Democrats—a striking 19-point gap. Since the 2024 election, sentiment among Democrats has dropped 22 points, while Republican confidence remains high, particularly around expectations for a Trump-influenced economic agenda.
Food and Fuel Still Weigh Heavily
While some indicators show easing pressure, a majority of New Yorkers remain burdened by everyday costs:
- 77% say grocery prices are seriously affecting their finances (down slightly from 79% in Q1).
- 47% report gas prices as a serious strain—the lowest level since March 2021, yet still nearly half the population.
- 72% say housing costs are a serious financial concern, up from 69% in Q1.
- 66% cite utility costs as a strain, while 53% say the same about streaming and entertainment services.
- 38% now say their cell phone bills are a serious burden—up from 36%.
Notably, 49% of New Yorkers report being seriously impacted by all three major essentials: food, housing, and utilities. And nearly one in five (17%) say they are seriously affected by all six tracked monthly expenses—food, gas, housing, utilities, entertainment, and cell phones.
Mixed Buying Plans Amid Tariff Uncertainty
Despite financial strain, buying plans remain steady or even optimistic in some sectors:
- 47% plan to buy consumer electronics, up two points from last quarter—the largest increase this cycle.
- 10.9% plan to purchase a home, up from 9.7%.
- 17.8% plan to buy a vehicle, down sharply from 20.9%.
- 23.6% plan to undertake major home improvements, down slightly from 24.3%.
- 30.2% plan to buy furniture, unchanged from last quarter.
“With so much change being discussed in the macroeconomy—from new trade deals to tariff shifts—consumers may be taking a ‘wait and see’ approach,” Brodbeck said. “Still, their readiness to invest in tech and housing shows that confidence hasn’t disappeared.”