Previously Published in The Messenger
Governor Kathy Hochul (D) is already limping into the 2026 cycle, in our opinion.
It seems like just yesterday that New York shocked the nation by experiencing a red wave while the rest of the country, sans Florida, virtually didn’t move. Then-Congressman Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley) turned a herculean task in flipping New York red into a near-upset, but Hochul has been on shaky ground ever since.
First, she’s never been intensely popular. Even her record-high approval ratings are in the mid-50’s, a decent mark, but not a clear mandate when she governs a politically evolving state. Moreover, her residency in that percentage bracket isn’t consistent. She’s spent more time underwater than she has above water, and even went into the 2024 cycle with a lower net favorability rating than Donald Trump (R-FL) – although he was also underwater in his own favorability numbers.
It was no surprise to us that New York shifted ten points to the right as it did. Minority voters are racing to the right, New York City has shifted a collective thirty points to the right since the 2016 presidential contest, and Queens appears winnable by the GOP in the next statewide contest.
Democrats are nervous and mainstream political prognosticators are taking note.
As opposed to the 2022 cycle, when forecasters waited until the closing weeks to shift New York into a more competitive category, none of the forecasters gave New York a “Safe Democratic” rating. In their preliminary ratings, New York is considered a battleground by Inside Elections. More granular ratings will come as the primaries close, but we expect that Inside Elections won’t rate it as a “Safe” state for the Democrats.
The 2025 New York City Mayoral race is also likely to cast a shadow on Albany, as a leader who can clean the city up might reflect poorly on Hochul’s inability or unwillingness to intervene, but a leader who maintains the status quo in the Big Apple will almost certainly see Hochul punished at the ballot box.
But in 2026, Hochul will be leading the ticket with no presidential or U.S. Senate race to help out turnout – not that our Senators are much to write home about anyway.
To make matters worse for her, Hochul is not galvanizing enough of the Democratic base to ensure that she prevails in a primary, let alone a general election.
In just one month, the Siena College has tracked a net ten-point negative movement among voters’ preferences. Last month, 39% of voters were prepared to re-elect Hochul while 48% were not. Now, the spread is 36%-55%.
The biggest problem is that Hochul can only attract 46% of Democratic support in a primary. It’s not necessarily a death knell in a primary, but it reveals a fractured and unenthusiastic base in the state that swung the hardest towards the GOP in the last two even-year cycles. That’s not a risk Hochul and company want to have going into next year.
The College also finds that Congresswoman Elise Stefanik (R, NY-21), who has all but announced that she’s running, is largely more preferred than two possible frontrunners, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R-Atlantic Beach) and Congressman Mike Lawler (R, NY-17).
Hochul already had one primary opponent, Congressman Ritchie Torres (D, NY-15). Torres, at just 37 years old, would likely galvanize progressive Democratic support that Hochul might have troubling nailing down. Moreover, he’d be a young, fresh face that could likely convince the Democrats who stayed home in 2024 to come out in 2026. Torres would also be the second black New York governor after David Patterson (D), and the first elected black governor.
But things have gotten considerably worse for Hochul, not necessarily in terms of numbers – at least as of now – but more in terms of PR.
Her own number-two, Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado (D), is officially running against her in the primary.
It’s never a good look to have your immediate subordinate gun for your job, especially in politics. Delgado already had to be reeled in after speaking on behalf of the executive branch regarding the legal issues surrounding New York City Mayor Eric Adams (D). After declining to run as Hochul’s lieutenant next year, he confirmed widespread speculation that he was mulling a run on Monday.
Keep in mind, Hochul did not face a serious primary attempt in 2022. She sailed through the state, sweeping every county with majority wins, garnering 67% of the vote to Jumaane Williams (D) and Congressman Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove).
This time, however, the preference polling shows a much tougher battle ahead, and with the PR nightmare of Delgado going rogue, we wonder if Hochul narrowly survives the Democratic primary.
If she does, we think she’s a slight underdog for re-election in 2026.
Fundamentals are still at play in the intrinsically Democratic state, but we continue to hold that the 2024 election was a watershed – one in which voters’ behaviors and patterns change for the long-term. New York just isn’t the lock it has been for thirty years, especially when New York City languishes as a shell of its former self. Just ten years ago, then-Mayor Bloomberg (I) handed a great city to Bill deBlasio (D). Since then, progressive Democrats have hijacked the State Legislature and the City Council, and even attempting to govern as a moderate – we credit Hochul where credit is due – only makes you a liability.
Still, many notable progressive advocates are calling for Delgado to resign based on his latest campaign move. They clearly see that incumbency advantage is perhaps the only classical political dynamic working in her favor.