By Hank Russell
The latest Siena College Research Institute (SCRI) poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris widening her lead against Donald Trump among likely voters, 58% to 39%.
Harris has grown her lead from 52% to 40% last month. Her 19-point margin is the largest lead she has taken so far, according to pollster Steven Greenberg. “Harris continues to have 88% support from Democrats and 87% of Republicans continue to support Trump,” he said.
When outside candidates are added in the mix, Harris still maintains a double-digit lead, 54%-37%, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver and third-party candidate Cornel West each get 1% of the vote. When undecided voters were asked which candidate they would lean towards, 42% said Harris, 19% said Trump and 39% said they did not know or refused to answer.
Greenberg also noted the shift in independent voters this month. “Independent voters — who have a tendency to fluctuate on how closely they align with the two parties — are closely divided, with 47% for Trump and 46% for Harris, after strongly favoring Trump last month.”
Harris’ favorability rating has risen over the past month to 54%-43% from 53%-44% in September. Trump’s favorability rating, meanwhile, declined slightly from 39%-57% last month to 38%-60% in October. However, just like last month, the former president still had a higher favorability rating than Governor Kathy Hochul’s (36%-51%). Only 55% of registered Democrats viewed Hochul favorably, according to SCRI. Harris’ boss, Joe Biden, hit a break-even of 48%-48%, up from 48%-51% last month.“A modest majority of voters continue to have a favorable view of Harris,” Greenberg said. “And by a larger margin, voters continue to have an unfavorable view of Trump, who they have consistently viewed unfavorably for more than a decade.”
Congressional Polling Favors LaLota, Gillen
The 1st Congressional District race is starting to tighten as Republican incumbent Nick LaLota leads Democrat challenger, 47%-44%. The poll also showed a plurality in favorability ratings. LaLota has a 47%-35% favorability rating — higher than Avlon’s (43%-27%).
In the 4th Congressional District race — another one of the more competitive Congressional races on Long Island — Democrat Laura Gillen is leading Republican incumbent Anthony D’Esposito by double digits, 54%-42%. In addition, she has a favorable rating of 47% and a 35% unfavorable rating. D’Esposito has a higher unfavorable rating of 46%, compared to a 41% favorable rating.
D’Esposito’s campaign has faltered as of late, with allegations of nepotism. Most recently, he hit back against his opponent by accusing her of bringing U.S. Representative Hakeem Jefferies (D-Brooklyn) to her rally which, D’Esposito claimed, was held on government property. He also accused her of aligning herself with “radical antisemites.”
Based on the numbers, there may not be a “red wave” on Long Island like in years past. “Voters favor Democrats for Congress over Republicans, 54-37%, up a little from 52-39% in September,” the SCRI stated. “Downstate suburbanites and independents had favored Republican candidates last month but now favor Democrats for Congress.”
U.S. Senate Race
Incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand is up 26 points on her GOP challenger, Michael Spraicone, compared to 23 points the previous month, Greenberg said. “While Sapraicone has support from 70% of Republicans, Gillibrand enjoys support from 84% of Democrats, and she has a single-digit lead with independents. Gillibrand has a 44-26% favorability rating, up from 40-31% in September. Interestingly, three in ten voters continue to not know or not have an opinion of Gillibrand. Sapraicone remains essentially unknown to nine in ten voters.”
GOP, Dems Agree on Direction of Nation
SCRI also found that, by a 61-28% margin, the country is going in the wrong direction. That is a little worse than 59-31% last month. The only silver lining for Republicans is that the Democrats are sharing their view of where this country is headed.
“While Democrats continue to say the state is headed on the right track, 55-33%, little changed from last month,” Greenberg said. “Democrats also say the country is headed in the wrong direction, 47-40%, a flip from September when a plurality, 49-35%, said the country was on the right track. More than 8 in 10 Republicans continue to say that both the state and country are headed in the wrong direction, as do strong majorities of independents.”
Nearly six in 10 voters (51%) say the state is going in the wrong direction, while 37% say New York is on the right track.