Previously Published in The Messenger
The first LIRR strike in over thirty years was resolved quickly, but Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R-Atlantic Beach), who is running for governor, might have an opening in the uphill battle for the mayor’s mansion this November – at least on Long Island.
Long Island is already favorable territory to the GOP. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley) trounced Governor Kathy Hochul (D-Hamburg) in 2022 by more than 150,000 votes, and President Donald Trump (R-FL) won Suffolk by his biggest margin of his three runs and painted Nassau red for the first time in a presidential race since 1988. Moreover, 2024 was the first time since that year that a Democrat lost the entire state outside of New York City.
Blakeman, the twice-elected head of Nassau, already has his work cut out for him in holding the 30% line in the city, while making up significant ground Upstate, where Hochul currently has slim leads. Long Island is more or less a foregone conclusion for practically any Republican statewide right now, but the LIRR strike might be able to ward off any inroads the Governor could make here as she campaigns for a second term.
While the blame has been shifted to Hochul, to the MTA, to Trump and his prerogatives in Washington, and even the unions themselves, at least some of the political fallout will invariably fall on Hochul. Other analysts say that the quick resolution with some wins for the unions could actually improve Hochul’s image for getting to the table so quickly.
We think there’s elements of truth to both schools of thought, but the overarching theme that Blakeman should take up is that Hochul, from Buffalo, can’t exactly relate to the working-class needs of Long Islanders. While some unfamiliar with the territory might brush off the strike — who still rides trains anymore? — it bears repeating that the LIRR is the busiest commuter rail in all of North America.
What is certain, we think, is that it will be a campaign issue this fall. If suburban voters continue to blame Hochul for their problems, whether she deserves it or not, the strike will likely be somewhere near the top of that list.