Previously Published in the Albany Times-Union
By Steve Levy
New York Democratic governor Kathy Hochul is the odds-on favorite to win reelection in this very blue state. But her Republican opponent, Bruce Blakeman, is running a very spirited, hard-fought campaign.
Even though the demographics are overwhelmingly in favor of the incumbent, she cannot take this race lightly.
Her Republican challenger four years ago, Lee Zeldin, came within six percentage points of knocking her off. This year is bound to be a much tougher test for the Republican challenger, given that President Trump‘s approval rating hovers in the mid-thirties and that, in most off-year elections, the party controlling the White House will suffer.
But Blakeman can benefit from a potential backlash that may come about, especially in more moderate and independent precincts, where voters are fearful of the rise of the Democratic Socialists.
It won’t be enough, however, for Blakeman to simply bash New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani or the dangers associated with the Democratic Socialist platform. Blakeman needs something bold to set him apart and to give New York residents something to vote for. If he plays his cards correctly, that something should be a promise to impose a cap on New York state spending.
Blakeman could have a field day noting how hypocritical our state leaders have been in imposing a spending and tax cap on local governments and schools, while conveniently exempting themselves on the state level from those same restrictions.
And here is the most convincing statistic of all: Had the state imposed the cap on itself in 2012 (when the budget was $132 billion) as it did for the lower-level jurisdictions, the state budget today would be over $100 billion lower than the $277 billion budget the governor and the legislature pushed through this past June.
The cap law limits spending and taxes to come in at or under 2% or the rate of inflation, whichever is lower. Had the cap applied to the state government, it would only have grown to $174 billion today.
The cap wasn’t a silver bullet, but it was a fairly successful law on the local level. Prior to the tax cap that took effect in 2012, school budgets on Long Island were increasing an average of 6% a year. After the caps were implemented, the average rate of increase shrunk to about 2%. That equated to an enormous taxpayer saving of over $25 billion through 2019.
As noted in a Center for Cost Effective Government report, spending caps work because they force prioritization. Each year, every special interest group under the sun appears before state and local governments to lobby for more money. Where no caps exist, it’s rather easy for officials on both sides of the aisle to cave and put them all inside the pot. The cap actually gives them the excuse to tell some of these organizations that they just don’t have the room this year and they will have to come back the following budget cycle.
Of course, there’s always a safety valve allowing for a piercing of the cap with a super majority, but that’s not as easy to effectuate as one would think.
Spending caps work not only in New York schools and local governments, but have worked successfully in numerous states throughout the country Those states with spending caps have overall lower spending and lower tax rates and are more competitive for their businesses and residents.
The property tax cap came into effect in large part because it was a major issue in the gubernatorial election of 2010. In the campaign four years earlier, former Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi ran for governor talking about a cap, but it got little traction.
However, after the real estate collapse of 2007 and the economic pain felt by homeowners, the cap became a centerpiece of the 2010 campaign. I made the issue part of my platform in my very short-lived run for governor.
After I failed to secure the Republican nomination, the Democratic candidate, Andtrew Cuomo, absorbed the issue into his campaign.
Upon winning the general election, it became something of a mandate from the people and it paved the way for this otherwise contentious issue to pass in the 2011 legislative session.
Were Blakeman to make this his top priority in this year‘s election, it would not only gain him notice from residents not giving much attention at this time to the race, but it would also provide the mandate that would be needed to help get the concept passed in 2027.
We know Governor Hochul will never embrace the cap on state spending, given the pressure from her flank on the left. There’s an opening for Blakeman here. He shouldn’t waste it.
Steve Levy is President of Common Sense Strategies, a political consulting firm. He served as Suffolk County Executive, as a NYS Assemblyman, and host of the “On the Right Side Podcast.” He is the author of “Solutions to America’s Problems” and “Bias in the Media.” www.SteveLevy.info, steve@commonsensestrategies.com