Previously Published in The Messenger
New York has long been considered one of Democrats’ three “blue strongholds” in the country, the other two being Illinois and California.
That’s why the 2022 gubernatorial election and 2024 presidential election were so head-turning. Then-Congressman Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley) came within ten points of turning New York red in nearly 20 years, while President Donald Trump (R-FL) galvanized hundreds of thousands of votes to make New York the most rightward-shifting state in the 2024 election.
They both had one thing in common: they went into New York City. Trump held three rallies in New York: the Bronx, Nassau County, and Madison Square Garden. Zeldin, on the other hand, made regular trips into the Big Apple, particularly by visiting subway stations that were hotbeds for violent crime.
For starters, campaigning in territory typically inhospitable to one’s political party is only necessary in trying to make a safe state competitive. Without it, one party can’t bemoan their minority status without pitching themselves to voters who would otherwise never consider their candidacy. We’re well aware of the “illusion of choice” at the federal level, but that illusion only becomes reality when one party routinely eschews a possible new base.
Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R-Atlantic Beach) in his campaign for governor this year must campaign in New York City. In fact, we think he should center most of his time within the four Democratic boroughs. The Bronx and Queens are the most fertile grounds for attracting new voters, especially those who are dissatisfied with Governor Kathy Hochul (D-Hamburg) as she campaigns for a second full term.
The Bronx experienced one of the sharpest rightward swings in the state in 2022 and in the nation in 2024. While Republicans will likely continue to get blown out of the water there, the populous borough can still give any Republican a significant number of votes to buoy their statewide total. In other words, a Republican would rather take 30% of the Bronx than 10% on any day of the week.
For Queens, we see a scenario, if Republicans play their cards right, in which the GOP can actually draw the borough to a single-digit margin. Trump and Zeldin approach an unprecedented 40% of the vote in both of their runs. Blakeman, running neighboring Nassau, has no excuse for not hitting every single neighborhood and talking to people on their front stoops directly.
If the GOP is serious about this year’s race, Blakeman will go into the city. If they’re serious about the long-term viability of the Republican Party in New York, Blakeman will go into the city.
If our state truly wants to be “saved” by the GOP, they will focus on the city more than they ever have.