Previously Published in The Messenger
By Matt Meduri
Republicans haven’t won a gubernatorial contest in New York since George Pataki (R-Elmira) was elected in 2002 to a third and final term.
In 2022, then-Congressman Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley) lost by just under 7 points – the closest gubernatorial race since 1994, when Pataki upset Governor Mario Cuomo (D).
Most polling shows one-term Governor Kathy Hochul (D-Hamburg) with a lead of up to or about 20 points over Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R-Atlantic Beach).
Of polls taken since March, after both Blakeman and Hochul formally earned their respective party nods, Hochul’s average lead is just over 14 points. That’s far from Democrats’ typical margins in New York statewide races, but it’s about double Hochul’s 2022 margin.
However, two polls have recently aired that could indicate a closer-than-expected race in the Empire State for the second cycle in a row.
Co/efficient, a Kansas City-based, a conservative-leaning, and award-winning pollster, finds Hochul just +6 over Blakeman – 47%-41%. The poll was conducted June 30 to July 2 and Additionally, co/efficient found that only 32% of voters view Hochul favorably, compared to 50% who don’t. On whether Hochul deserves re-election, only 33% said that she does, while 55% are opting for someone new.
However, co/efficient highlighted perhaps Blakeman’s largest liability thus far: name recognition. Of the respondents, 26% view Blakeman favorably, 21% view him unfavorably, 21% are “unsure,” and 32% said they’d never heard of him.
Only 35% of respondents said New York is heading in the “right direction,” compared to 48% who think otherwise.
The poll was sponsored by the Coalition to Protect Nassau Taxpayers, whose website still references former Nassau County Executive Laura Curran (D-Baldwin) on their website. Blakeman narrowly defeated Curran in an upset in 2021.
This week, Red Oak Strategic, a Virginia-based polling and data firm for conservative and Republican campaigns, found Hochul up just +4 over Blakeman – 47%-43%. Only 10% of voters were undecided.
Moreover, just 38% of respondents view Hochul favorably, compared to 58% who view her unfavorably. Her job approval is starkly different from the treading-water position the mainstream pollsters typically find Hochul. Red Oak finds her job approval at 39%, while 56% of voters disapprove.
Only 33% say Hochul deserves another term; 61% disagree.
Meanwhile, Blakeman is viewed favorably by 30% of voters and unfavorably by 23%. About 47% of voters have never heard of him or have no opinion. That’s mostly in line with mainstream pollsters who find a massive name recognition problem for Blakeman, the severity of which compounds with less than 100 days to go until Election Day.
Additionally, 57% of New Yorkers say the state is on the wrong track; just 33% say otherwise. A majority of voters cited “cost of living/inflation” and “economy/jobs/taxes” as their top issues. In third place was “public safety.” 57% of voters blamed their politicians for the cost-of-living issues; 35% blamed corporations.
Of the 2,000 respondents, 43% said they are “worse off” than they were a year ago, with 15% saying they’re better off.
The poll was conducted among 2,000 New York State registered voters from July 7-12. The margin of error is +/- 2.2%.
Red Oak also posits that 5.9 million New Yorkers will cast ballots in 2026, little changed from the 2022 final tally.
They think that 73% of Republicans are much more interested in the governor’s race than previous ones, compared to 44% of Democrats, making for a 29-point enthusiasm gap. Democrats still outnumber Republicans in voter registration – more than two-to-one – while Independent voters make up the second-largest share of the registered electorate.